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Prediction for CME (2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-27T06:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32245/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME visible towards the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and towards the NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M3.1 flare from AR 3762 with dimming/EUV wave towards the N/NW starting at 2024-07-27T05:42Z best seen in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 (SDO/AIA has an eclipse shortly after the event starts). The eruption is also visible south of disk center as seen in available EUV imagery. Arrival signature: a likely combined shock of this CME and up to 3 preceding CMEs characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to above 10 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T23:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-30T13:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:2024-07-27 12:46
Radial velocity (km/s):551
Longitude (deg):19
Latitude (deg):16
Half-angular width (deg):45

Notes: Obscured in STREROA by earlier CME.

Lead Time: 15.33 hour(s)
Difference: -13.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-07-29T08:00Z

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